Rotating Bottles
Available firstTomorrow's Best Bets
Bayesian predictionRanked by predicted availability. Predictions improve as more days are tracked.
Early-data territory — model uses Bayesian priors from historical patterns. Confidence grows with each day tracked.
Quick answers
What is Buffalo Trace selling today?
On Wednesday, October 28, 2026, Buffalo Trace's product availability page lists Blanton's Single Barrel, Weller Antique 107 and E.H. Taylor Small Batch. Not listed: Eagle Rare 10-Year. Buffalo Trace's list was last updated 7:36am EST. We check every morning from 7am EST (8am on Sundays). See each bottle’s status, streak and odds above.
How are tomorrow's predictions made?
Each bottle's chance for tomorrow is a Bayesian estimate: it starts from a baseline worth about fifteen days of evidence and is updated with every day-to-day change recorded (stayed on the shelf, disappeared, came back, stayed gone), so the number depends on whether the bottle is in stock today. Every prediction is written down before the next day's shelf is known and scored afterward; the Analytics page shows the accuracy record and the full method.
Analytics
No stats degree requiredHow Often Does Each Bottle Show Up?
Based on days tracked so farWhat the Data Says
Auto-generated from tracked daysHow these numbers are calculated
- Where the data comes from
- Buffalo Trace's own gift shop availability page, read once a day. There is no feed and no inside line — if it is not posted publicly, it is not here.
- Days tracked
- Every day recorded since tracking began, including days the gift shop was closed. Closure days are counted as tracked but excluded from availability averages, so a holiday does not read as a bottle being unavailable.
- Overall %
- Days a bottle was on the shelf, divided by days tracked.
- Last 10 / last 30 days
- The same calculation over the most recent 10 or 30 logged days. These move faster than the overall figure, which is the point of showing both.
- Streak
- Consecutive most recent days in the same state — on the shelf, or not.
- Average gap
- Mean number of calendar days from one sighting to the next. A gap near 1.0 means it has been there almost every day, not that it appears once a day.
- Tomorrow's chance
- Every day-to-day change is counted for each bottle — stayed on the shelf, disappeared, came back, stayed gone — and combined with a starting assumption worth about fifteen days of evidence, which fades as real days accumulate. The percentage shown is conditioned on what is on the shelf today, so it is not a long-run average: the same bottle shows a different number depending on whether it is currently in stock.
- Confidence
- How much history the estimate rests on, not how likely it is to be right. Under 15 observed day-to-day changes reads "Prior only", under 30 reads "Medium", and 30 or more reads "High". A high-confidence estimate can still be wrong.
- Prediction accuracy
- Each day's prediction is written down before the next day's shelf is known, then scored against what actually appeared. A bottle counts as predicted when its chance was 50% or higher. The headline figure is every individual bottle call across every scored day. Closure days are excluded.
What these numbers are not. They describe how often bottles have shown up on days that were tracked. They are not a delivery schedule, and nothing here knows what is on a truck. The distillery does not publish when it will put a bottle out, so a high percentage means it has been there often lately — not that it will be there when you arrive.
Availability Calendar
Month viewBottle Profiles
Know what you're huntingBuffalo Trace's rotating gift shop bottles are some of the most sought-after bourbons in America. Here's everything you need to know before making the trip.
Special Releases Spotted
Beyond the rotating fourLimited bottles that have appeared at the gift shop since tracking began in March 2026. These drop without warning, often around bourbon holidays, and usually sell out same-day.
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